This is the UK’s biggest European regional constituency, returning ten MEPs. So it is the area where the most proportional results are feasible, and where smaller parties (those that can reach 6-8 per cent support) have the best chance of gaining a seat. Traditionally a Conservative stronghold in all other elections, UKIP none the less came first here in 2014. That inheritance has now passed to the Brexit Party, which fields Nigel Farage as their top candidate and is now certain to win four seats here, and probably a fifth. Since Conservative support has apparently slumped, the Liberal Democrats are sure of winning a seat and should get two if current polls are right. The Tories, Greens and Labour should all get one seat each, and with small increments in support each (plus Change UK) might vie with the Brexit party for the last of the region’s seats. With voters able to cast only a single vote for a party list, the Democratic Audit team reviews likely outcomes for the parties and the main potentially electable candidates.