Seat Preview: Cardiff Central

27 May 2017

Cardiff Central

MP: Jo Stevens (Labour)

Majority 4,981

Labour-Lib Dem semi-marginal

Cardiff Central is a seat with an interesting history. Prior to the second world war, it was held by the Conservatives and Labour (and National Labour), but never the Liberals. However, the Liberal Democrats won the seat in 2005 and 2010, following strong showings in the area on Cardiff Council and the Welsh Assembly.

Jo Stevens won the seat back for Labour in 2015. She currently has a majority of 4,981 over the Liberal Democrats, who this time are fielding former Assembly Member Eluned Parrott as their candidate. The Lib Dems need a swing of around 6.5% to take the seat from Labour, and are hopeful given that 68% of the constituency (probably) voted Remain in the referendum. In addition, Labour may devote more resources to fighting the Tories in neighbouring Cardiff West, and Cardiff South and Penarth, than in fending off the Lib Dems in Cardiff Central. Still, the Lib Dems had a very disappointing night in Cardiff in the local elections, which could be a sign that Tim Farron’s party will fall short in the seat in June.

Candidates, previous results, Brexit vote breakdown - Democratic Dashboard has all the data you need in every constituency ahead of the June General Election.

Craig Johnson is a Cardiff-based Research Officer with the Public Policy Institute for Wales, and is in the closing stages of a Ph.D. in British politics at Newcastle University. He tweets @cjnu1.